Super Bowl LV is set, with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs ready to battle Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida, on Feb. 7. Here are some betting nuggets to get you prepared for the big game.

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Super Bowl betting trends to know

• Favorites have covered two straight Super Bowls and three of the last four. Overall, favorites are 27-25-2.

• The last two Super Bowls went under the total. There have been 10 overs and 10 unders in the last 20 Super Bowls, and it's 26-26-1 overall (no total for Super Bowl I).

• AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls.

• The favored team is 35-19 straight up in the 54 Super Bowls.

• A total of 57 would be the second-highest closing Super Bowl total ever. Super Bowl LVI closed at 58 and went over in OT.

• The Chiefs enter 8-10 ATS on the season, the fifth team to advance to the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (only the 2012 Ravens went on to win).

• Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 outright in his career in the Super Bowl. He has been an underdog once, in his first Super Bowl vs. the Rams. (Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett, with two each).

• Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett (two each).

• This will be the first time Brady is an underdog in three straight starts since 2002-03 and the first time in a single season since 2001. It will snap Brady's 308-game streak without being an underdog in three consecutive starts. The next longest streak in the Super Bowl era is 201 by Aaron Rodgers (active streak).

• This will be the eighth straight playoff game Mahomes is favored in. That will break a tie with Kurt Warner for the most consecutive playoff games favored in to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.

• Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS when he is not a double-digit favorite (6-0-1 ATS as underdog, 21-13 ATS as single-digit favorite).

• Breakdown by position of first TD:

WR 22
RB 21
TE 5
QB 3
CB 2
Defense 1

• Breakdown by score of first TD:

TD 26
FG 25
Safety 3

• Coin toss: Heads 25, tails 29

• Tampa Bay closed as a 4-point underdog in its only other Super Bowl appearance (2002). It won outright. If the Bucs close as an underdog, they will look to join the Giants (3), Raiders (2), Broncos (2) and Washington (2) as the only teams to win multiple Super Bowls as an underdog.

• Mahomes has the fourth-highest cover percentage (61.5%) of any QB in the Super Bowl era; Brady (59.5%) is eighth.

• Brady is 41-17-1 ATS in his career as an underdog and 36-23 outright as an underdog, both best in the Super Bowl era

• Since 2015, the under is 22-9 in Brady starts with a total in the 50s (16-6 since 2017).

• The Chiefs are the fifth team to reach Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (8-10). Only the 2012 Ravens went on to win it all.

• Andy Reid is 5-5 ATS with Kansas City with at least 13 days between games. He was 13-4 ATS with Philadelphia in that situation.

• Since 2018, Brady has covered all five games with at least 13 days between games, including the Week 14 game this season.

• The spread has not come into play in the last 11 Super Bowls. Winners are 46-6-2 ATS. The last team to win but not cover was Pittsburgh in 2008 over Arizona (-7, won by 4).

• The Chiefs are the fifth straight preseason favorite (+400) to reach the Super Bowl. Three of the last four won the game.

• Kansas City is 5-0 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

• Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, though it did cover in its last game.

• Tampa Bay has covered the last four times it has been an underdog.

• The Buccaneers have covered each of the last three meetings, including their Week 12 meeting this season. In that game, Kansas City was a 3.5-point favorite on the road. Now Kansas City is a 3-point favorite in that building, though it is technically a neutral site.

ESPN's Stats & Information group contributed to this story.

It’s fun to see the NFL look like the NBA every once in a while and send everyone into a frenzy creating fake trade scenarios.

There aren’t many blockbuster trades in the NFL that aren’t two teams swapping draft picks, but then Deshaun Watson got fed up with the Houston Texans. It’s arguable that a quarterback of Watson’s age and talent has never been traded in his prime before. The best comparison might be when Josh McDaniels alienated Jay Cutler in his first weeks as Denver Broncos coach and practically had to trade him to the Chicago Bears.

But Watson is better than Cutler. He had one of the best seasons ever on a bad team, doing everything he could and seeing the rest of the Texans let him down in a 4-12 season. Watson is a fantastic NFL quarterback. And since Watson’s unhappiness with the Texans became public knowledge, trade speculation has taken over NFL Twitter.

What team will end up with Watson? BetMGM has posted odds — there has already been plenty of line movement — so let’s look at which side has value as of Tuesday afternoon:

Well, maybe: Denver Broncos and Washington Football Team (+1000), San Francisco 49ers (+1400)

Here’s where we’ll start, though BetMGM is offering odds on all 32 teams. There are odds of +2000 or greater on 24 of those teams. If you want to bet on the Kansas City Chiefs landing Watson at 250-to-1, hey, go ahead.

Here are the three teams in that range of 10-to-1 but below 20-to-1. All three make sense but the problem for each of them is what they’d offer. They could all use a quarterback upgrade but none of them have the draft capital to beat some other teams that can say the same thing. It’s not like the Texans will be moved by a package that includes Drew Lock.

The only reason these teams are on the list is need. Maybe the Broncos, with new GM George Paton, feel they can afford to give years worth of first-round picks. But it still might not be enough.

Reasonable candidates: Chicago Bears (+900) and New England Patriots (+900)

The Bears and Patriots have the same conundrum as the three teams listed above. They would love to get Watson but neither team realistically has the ammunition to pull it off.

For the Bears, it would be righting a mistake. The Bears passed on Deshaun Watson for Mitchell Trubisky in the draft and that was a franchise-altering error. The Bears haven’t had a quarterback of Watson’s caliber since Sid Luckman.

Watson to the Patriots is everyone’s nightmare. Bill Belichick had almost two decades of quarterbacking greatness with Tom Brady, and landing Watson would just be unfair. But one problem the Patriots have is a lack of young talent, thanks to some mediocre drafts. What would New England reasonably give up to land Watson? The Patriots pick 15th in the first round this season and it’s hard to imagine a New England team with Watson ever picking in the top 10.

Again, these teams sound good on paper but if Watson truly gets moved, there will be many teams in the running and a couple others can offer much more.

Now we’re getting serious: Miami Dolphins (+500) and New York Jets (+400)

Each of these teams have a top-three pick this year and a young quarterback who was once picked in the top five that could still emerge as a viable NFL starter. If the Dolphins offer Tua Tagovailoa and the third pick (obtained from the Texans in a batty Bill O’Brien trade for tackle Laremy Tunsil) as part of a package, how could the other teams compete with that?

The Jets might be able to, though it’s harder to buy Sam Darnold as a valuable trade piece. Tagovailoa wasn’t great as a rookie but he wasn’t bad. Darnold has been bad. To believe he will become a good NFL starter is to completely believe Adam Gase ruined him and he’s fixable, because there is no other tangible argument to be made for Darnold after three seasons. But he did have a draft pedigree. But if the No. 2 pick is available in a Watson deal, the Texans would likely just take Justin Fields or Zach Wilson anyway.

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The reason these teams stand out is because the Texans could have an immediate first-round replacement at quarterback who would help calm down some of the criticism for trading Watson. It’s hard to trade a great talent like Watson and then sell a fan base on a season of AJ McCarron at quarterback.

But the most obvious conclusion to this mess is the favorite.

Yeah, probably right: Houston Texans (+100)

Watson has completed one year of a four-year, $156 million deal. He has a $10.5 million base salary 2021, $35 million in 2022 and $20 million in 2023. Watson is 25 years and in his competitive prime.

If the Texans simply said he’s not being traded, it’s not like Watson has a lot of options. He could sit out, or make things very difficult on the Texans, but if Houston takes a hard stance, it’s hard to imagine Watson is going to pass on that much money.

The Texans are a frighteningly incompetent franchise and they have made countless terrible moves the past few years. But — let’s get your jokes out of the way — the Texans understand Watson is a rare talent. There’s a reason quarterbacks like Watson don’t get traded. It’s one thing to trade DeAndre Hopkins or make an impulsive deal for Tunsil, but trading a quarterback is a completely different category. New general manager Nick Caserio was hired in an unusual way, with the now divisive Jack Easterby seemingly leading the way, but Caserio is not dumb. He knows that trading Watson will be the defining move of his career.

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Maybe Watson gets traded, if a team decides to make a strong offer and the Texans decide that it’s worth moving an unhappy superstar. But there’s a reason the Texans are the even-money favorite to have Watson at quarterback to start 2021.

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